HousingToday

Mortgage And Refinance Rates, June 8

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates just edged lower yesterday. But that made very little difference after several recent sharper rises.

Earlier this morning, it was looking as if mortgage rates today might rise modestly. But volatility means that might not last the day.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed 5.585% 5.609% Unchanged
 
Conventional 15 year fixed 4.522% 4.562% -0.1%
 
Conventional 20 year fixed 5.589% 5.622% +0.08%
 
Conventional 10 year fixed 4.708% 4.787% +0.1%
 
30 year fixed FHA 5.509% 6.318% +0.24%
 
15 year fixed FHA 4.921% 5.426% +0.13%
 
30 year fixed VA 4.866% 5.082% -0.16%
 
15 year fixed VA 5.625% 5.978% +0.04%
 
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don’t lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

For weeks, I’ve been suggesting you shouldn’t take daily rises and falls in mortgage rates too seriously. That applies to yesterday’s small fall as much as last week’s larger rises. All these are more likely to be down to general volatility than the start of a new trend.

On balance, I suspect rises will outweigh falls over a prolonged period. But plenty of unknown variables could come along and ruin that prediction.

Still, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 3.02% from 2.99%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were lower soon after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices climbed to $119.94 from $118.52 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices increased to $1,855 from $1,849 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — rose to 35 from 31 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might rise modestly. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

The volatility that’s pushing mortgage rates up and down has arisen because investors are facing so many unknowns. In particular, they’d love to know what to expect concerning:

  1. Inflation — Has it peaked or will it climb higher? We’ll know more on Friday when the consumer price index for May is published. But, even then, we won’t be sure. One or two months’ data aren’t enough to draw conclusions. And, as long as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine grinds on, there could be more upward pressure to come
  2. How the Federal Reserve will tackle inflation — High employment and inflation numbers might embolden the Fed to act too aggressively. And that could cause a recession. Watch out for a Fed news conference on Jun. 15 when we might discover more about its plans and posture
  3. Whether China will recover — The world’s second-biggest economy has been in the doldrums. The Beijing government has been pulling back from some of its more economically damaging policies. But will that be enough?
  4. If we’ll face another COVID-19 wave — The virus hasn’t gone away, and a couple of Omicron sub-variants are beginning to worry experts. Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal (paywall) said, “Omicron Covid-19 variants BA.4 and BA.5 are on the rise in the U.S., adding two more highly contagious versions of the virus to the mix that has fueled a springtime surge in cases.

Of course, markets are used to dealing with uncertainty. Investors make money by anticipating what will come next and pricing it into their investments. But those are four big questions with zero answers and potentially serious consequences.

Continuing volatility

It’s because those investors have been anticipating inflation and the Fed’s actions against it that mortgage rates climbed so far and fast during the first four months of 2022. They appeared to decide they’d done enough pricing in of risk during most of May. But they now seem to be having second thoughts.

Chances are, mortgage rates will regain a firm sense of direction only when investors become more confident they’ve adequately priced in future risk. Until then, we’ll probably see plenty of directionless ups and downs.

Why do I think mortgage rates are more likely to move higher than lower when this period of uncertainty eventually tapers out? Well, yesterday evening, The Wall Street Journal (paywall) ran the headline, “[US Treasury Secretary] Janet Yellen and World Bank Expect Elevated Inflation to Persist.” If they turn out to be right, upward pressure on those rates is likely to continue.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.

Recent trends

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Rates then bumbled along, moving little for the following eight or nine months. But they began rising noticeably that September. Unfortunately, they’ve been mostly shooting up since the start of 2022, although May was a kinder month.

Freddie’s June 2 report puts that same weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.09% (with 0.8 fees and points), very slightly down from the previous week’s 5.1%.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.8 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on May 19, and the MBA’s on May 16. Freddie’s were released on Apr. 18. But it now updates its figures only quarterly so they’re already looking stale.

Forecaster Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23
Fannie Mae 5.1% 5.1%  5.1% 5.1%
Freddie Mac 4.8% 4.8%  5.0% 5.0%
MBA 5.2% 5.1%  5.0% 5.0%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent, or affiliates.

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